A Lost Generation Of Lawyers
I'm an optimist, so it pains me to say this: the current generation of law school students might turn out to be a lost generation. There is plenty of evidence that they are having a hugely difficult time finding jobs. The unemployment rate coming out of some law schools might be 50% or higher. What hasn't sunk in is that a large percentage of this cohort of law students may never meaningfully work as lawyers. I fully expect that some of them will try to open a law office and make a go of it. But most are not likely to succeed. Even in the best of economic times, operating a law office is not for everybody. Moreover, this is one debt-ridden generation of students. Many of them will graduate with tens of thousands of dollars of student loans and for students who attended private universities and law schools, it's easy to rack up debts in excess of $100,000. That is a difficult financial posture from which to try to start a new business.
Ironically, the difficulties facing law school graduates seems to be lost on the next generation of college graduates. They are sticking with the old strategy of applying to graduate school when the ecnomy is tough. The number of law school applicants is way up; in some schools up more than 50% compared to last year. The idea of applying to law school seems understandable, but mostly it's just ignorant. This is not like recessions of the past. the legal profession was undergoing significant changes before this recent economic downturn started. Those chnages were already putting significant downward pressure on fees for a wide array of legal services. Some aspects of legal work were commoditized a decade before the Great Recession began.
So what does it mean? It means that we are likely to see a semi-permanent underclass of lawyers. Those who are technically lawyers, but who can't make a decent living at it. This process started a few years ago. In 2005 I met a law school graduate who was being paid $10 an hour by her firm, pending the results of her bar exam. I expect that many law school graduates will face an even more challenging environment in the next 3-5 years. The ecomomy will get better, but I suspect and fear that the economic recovery will largely pass by the current generation of law students.
What does it mean for people who hire lawyers? It means that we will have more self-taught lawyers. Fewer new lawyers will have the benefit of an experienced boss. It means that the costs of commodity-type legal work such as basic wills will continue to stagnate. It means tha the relative advanatge of experienced lawyers will continue to grow. I am big beleiver in hiring lawyers who have the specific experience you need. Law is largely learned on the job. That is not changing as a result of the recession. Thus, if you have an important legal issue, it will be more important than ever to find an experienced lawyer. The experienced and the established lawyer will and should benefit disporportionately. The rich will get richer. And sadly, many new law school grads will be part of a lost generation of lawyers.
